What is Bolton Wanderers' natural level and should fans accept a harsh reality?

If one of the club’s in-house media team asked anyone at Bolton what their ‘New Year’s resolution’ would be, no doubt the answer would be promotion without a second thought...

The reality, however, is different. Now in their fourth season in League One, promotion seems a distant challenge for Bolton, and it’s becoming clear that the current squad is stuck in a frustrating middle ground. While the notion is that wounds from last season are being reopened by humbling defeats to local rivals, the reality is they never healed. These issues were neither addressed nor acknowledged, with an eerie silence maintained by the club’s usually hyperactive media channels in the weeks following the chastening day at Wembley.

At the back of most Bolton fans' minds is a belief that the club’s status and history make a return to the Championship a case of ‘when, not if’. However, as we move into 2025, that ambition increasingly feels disconnected from reality. Bolton are currently 11 points off second place, with Birmingham City also having a game in hand. More crucially, we simply aren't playing like a side that deserves promotion, and that’s been the case for almost the entire season, aside from a few brief spells.

Football Ventures have spoken ambitiously about a return to the Championship, but competing with the financial clout of clubs like Birmingham, Ipswich, and Sunderland is always going to be difficult. When you factor in how Wrexham can access additional sources of revenue that are simply not available to Bolton, you begin to question what our ‘status’ really means in this new order.

Boardrooms and executive decision-making are driven by long-term plans, and all decisions should be seen in that context. The concept of ‘momentum’, often referenced in sport and business, isn’t real—it’s about confidence. Tasks are easier when you believe you can complete them. You start to wonder where Bolton can find this ‘momentum’ in the current climate.

If you’ve read this far, thank you. I imagine you’re waiting for me to address Ian Evatt and his status as manager, and yes, of course I will.

Bolton had a good season last year, but ultimately it ended in failure. My view at the time was that, if we were to make another push for promotion, we needed new blood—players and a manager not affected by the previous near-miss. Here we are in December 2024 with the same manager and largely the same squad. This season can still be a success. There’s a faint chance of automatic promotion, but more realistically, Bolton are well in the play-off mix and are also in the last 16 of the Vertu Trophy (I think that's what it's called now).

I’ve already posed the question as to whether Wanderers fans should accept a more difficult reality, and I urge Ian Evatt to show similar humility. His commitment to his style of football has been unwavering, but the fanbase is frustrated. Earlier this season, Evatt admitted, “We’re not at the level we want to be, but we’re working towards it” (Bolton News, September 2024). The frustration among fans is undeniable, whether or not Evatt feels it’s justified. You cannot control how people feel, but you can control how you respond, both through actions and communication. This is a scenario playing out at clubs across the country—managers facing pressure and scrutiny. The best ones find a way through it.

One issue that continues to haunt Evatt is his reluctance to change his defensive system. The 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation was key to the success in League Two, providing the tactical solidity that allowed attacking players to thrive. Evatt said, "We want to be bold, we want to play expansive football" (Bolton News, December 2023). But given the squad’s inconsistency and defensive lapses, why not return to a system that previously brought success? A shift to a back four may not just be a tactical change, but a necessary adjustment to restore balance.

Looking ahead to the January transfer window, the priority may not be new signings, but getting the best out of the existing squad. Players like Dion Charles, Aaron Collins, and John McAtee undoubtedly have the quality to perform, but consistency has been lacking. After a recent defeat, Evatt said, “We have the quality, but we just need that bit more consistency” (Bolton News, November 2024). This highlights the need to unlock the potential of the current squad, rather than overhauling it.

In the end, whether or not this season ends in promotion, the key to a successful future lies in making the most of the squad and recalibrating expectations. The harsh reality may be difficult to accept, but it could be the first step towards the long-term growth the club needs.

Let’s see where 2025 takes us.